Resources used: SeekingAlpha, Stratosphere.io, AlphaSpread, ROIC.ai
Before you start, remember no company should be eliminated until comparison with expectations made. Then, does it meet YOUR hurdle rate.
Napkin screen for value
Skate where the puck is going.
This book makes the argument for (1) working backwards from stock price to reveal expectations that are already embedded, then (2) assess the likelihood of expectations. Earnings
$NRP
Coal royalty, ability to play coal without worry about inflation (costs rising). Paying down debt aggressively.
Review: Check balance sheet each quarter.When it looks like debt pay down is close, consider
$AFM.V
7/30/23: Tin as a commodity is extremely small in comparison with most commodities. There is currently a potential for 10% of the market supply to go offline with Myanmar
Summary: Develop and refine your process.
- Calculate your expected value and probabilities. Consider if affect is changing your perception on the probabilities.
- Determine if the investment provides you with high magnitude.